High Habitat Potential but Limited Connectivity for Brown Bears Throughout Europe

ABSTRACT Aim Large carnivores worldwide have experienced substantial range contractions due to human activities, though several species are recolonising parts of their historical range. We aimed to assess current and potential European brown bear ( Ursus arctos arctos ) habitat as well as habitat connectivity on a continental scale. Location The extended biogeographical regions of Europe, spanning from Portugal to central Russia, longitudinally, and from Norway to Türkiye, latitudinally. Excluding inland seas; this area covers 11,151,636 km 2 . Methods We assessed habitat suitability throughout the study area using an ensemble species distribution model with nine submodels, using data from 10 European bear populations and Türkiye. We used the resulting habitat suitability maps to conduct a least‐cost path connectivity analysis and an omnidirectional circuit connectivity analysis. Main Conclusions Habitat suitability was strongly associated with low percentages of agricultural cover, low percentages of human development, and proximity to forest. Of our entire study area, 37% (4.09 million km 2 ) is occupied or potentially suitable for bears. Connectivity analyses identified corridors that could facilitate movement among southern European bear populations, though agricultural land and human development limit connectivity between northern and southern European bear populations. Previous research estimated bears occupied 0.5 million km 2 across the European Union, while our results estimate 1.82 million km 2 of this part of our study area is potentially suitable for bears, though connectivity is limited. Our results inform conservation strategies and policy development for the future of brown bears in Europe, emphasising the need for transboundary conservation efforts.

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Journal
Diversity and Distributions
Published
2025-12-30
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.70130
Primary Topic
Wildlife Ecology and Conservation
Type
article
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article

High Habitat Potential but Limited Connectivity for Brown Bears Throughout Europe

Aleksandar Perović, Agnieszka Sergiel, Aleksandar Dutsov, Igor Trbojević et al.
Diversity and Distributions
Wildlife Ecology and Conservation
article

High Habitat Potential but Limited Connectivity for Brown Bears Throughout Europe

Aleksandar Perović, Agnieszka Sergiel, Aleksandar Dutsov, Igor Trbojević, Urmas Saarma, Diana Zlatanova, Natalia Bragalanti, Otso Huitu, Claudio Groff, Tijana Trbojević, Paolo Molinari, Aleksandër Trajçe, Alper Ertürk, Stefano Filacorda, Tomaž Skrbinšek, Yorgos Mertzanis, Snorre B. Hagen, Pierre Yves Quenette, Hüseyin Ambarlı, Luca Fumagalli, Deniz Özüt, Jonas Kindberg, Ilpo Kojola, Mihai Fedorca, Gregor Simčič, Filip Zięba, Andrea Mustoni, Bledi Hoxha, Vladimir Piminov, M. M. Pop, Andriy‐Taras Bashta, S. Reljić, Alexander Kopatz, Jasmin Pašić, Ali Onur Sayar, Stefano Pesaro, Georg Rauer, Javier Naves, Csaba Domokos, Henrik Brøseth, M. van den Bosch, Maria Psaralexi, Marta De Barba, Sergey Ogurtsov, Niko Balkenhol, Jerrold L. Belant, Finďo Slavomír, Ladislav Paule, Nuria Selva, Eloy Revilla, Julien Renaud, Aleksandar Stojanov, Klemen Jerina, Paolo Ciucci, Anne G. Hertel, Santiago Palazon, José Vicente López‐Bao, Konstantin Tirronen, Diana Krajmerová, Ovidiu Ionescu, Duško Ćirović, Mark Chynoweth, Luigi Maiorano, Peep Männil, Ancuta Fedorca, Andreas Zedrosser, Alexandros A. Karamanlidis, Alexander Saveljev, Aida Parres, Ainhoa Graciarena, Cagan Sekercioglu, Djuro Huber, Milan Paunović, Shane C. Frank, Anil Soyumert, Georgeta Ionescu, Tomasz Zwijacz‐Kozica, Anja Molinari‐Jobin, Miguel de Gabriel Hernando, Michaela Skuban
article en

Abstract

ABSTRACT Aim Large carnivores worldwide have experienced substantial range contractions due to human activities, though several species are recolonising parts of their historical range. We aimed to assess current and potential European brown bear ( Ursus arctos arctos ) habitat as well as habitat connectivity on a continental scale. Location The extended biogeographical regions of Europe, spanning from Portugal to central Russia, longitudinally, and from Norway to Türkiye, latitudinally. Excluding inland seas; this area covers 11,151,636 km 2 . Methods We assessed habitat suitability throughout the study area using an ensemble species distribution model with nine submodels, using data from 10 European bear populations and Türkiye. We used the resulting habitat suitability maps to conduct a least‐cost path connectivity analysis and an omnidirectional circuit connectivity analysis. Main Conclusions Habitat suitability was strongly associated with low percentages of agricultural cover, low percentages of human development, and proximity to forest. Of our entire study area, 37% (4.09 million km 2 ) is occupied or potentially suitable for bears. Connectivity analyses identified corridors that could facilitate movement among southern European bear populations, though agricultural land and human development limit connectivity between northern and southern European bear populations. Previous research estimated bears occupied 0.5 million km 2 across the European Union, while our results estimate 1.82 million km 2 of this part of our study area is potentially suitable for bears, though connectivity is limited. Our results inform conservation strategies and policy development for the future of brown bears in Europe, emphasising the need for transboundary conservation efforts.

Diversity and DistributionsVol. 32(1)
University of Udine (IT), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR), Ohio Environmental Protection Agency (US), Wildlife Conservation Society (US), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (ES), University of Veterinary Medicine Vienna (AT), University of Ljubljana (SI), Universidad de Oviedo (ES), University of Banja Luka (BA), University of Zagreb (HR), Environment Agency (GB), Academy of Sciences of Albania (AL), Aristotle University of Thessaloniki (GR), University of Utah (US), Colorado Parks and Wildlife (US), Government of Spain (ES), Roztocze National Park (PL), University of South-Eastern Norway (NO), Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SE), Natural Resources Institute Finland (FI), Transylvania University of Brașov (RO), University of Belgrade (RS), Estación Biológica de Doñana (ES), International Clinic of Rehabilitation (UA), Biodiversity Research Institute (US), Technická univerzita vo Zvolene (SK), National Institute for Research and Development in Forestry "Marin Drăcea" (RO), Provincia Autonoma di Trento (IT), Slovenian Forestry Institute (SI), Central Forest Nature Reserve (RU), Uintah Basin Applied Technology College (US), Institute of Nature Conservation (PL), Fondazione Progetto Ematologia (IT), Institute of Biology of Karelian Research Centre (RU), Forestry and Game Management Research Institute (CZ), Türksat (Turkey) (TR), Public Health Institute of the Republic of Srpska (BA), Telekom Srbija (Serbia) (RS), Sky (United Kingdom) (GB), University Centre of Legal Medicine (CH), St Andrew’s Hospital (AU), Laboratoire d'Écologie Alpine (FR), Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research (NO), Karelian Research Centre (RU), Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NO), Fondazione Pezcoller (IT), Department of Forestry (MW), Univerzitet Za Poslovne Studije (BA), Environmental Protection Agency (IE), University clinical center of Republika Srpska (BA), Oikon (Croatia) (HR), Düzce Üniversitesi (TR), Norwegian University of Life Sciences (NO), University of Tartu (EE), Sofia University "St. Kliment Ohridski" (BG), University of Montenegro (ME), Université Savoie Mont Blanc (FR), University of Göttingen (DE), Universidad de Huelva (ES), Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (DE), Sapienza University of Rome (IT), Michigan State University (US), Université Grenoble Alpes (FR), Colorado State University (US), University of Lausanne (CH), Kastamonu University (TR), Polish Academy of Sciences (PL)
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