The Impact of Tourist Expectations, Experiences, and Satisfaction on Revisit Intentions: A Moderated Mediation Analysis

In an increasingly experience-driven tourism market, the need to understand how expectations and experiences interact to shape future behavior remains underexplored. Based on the theory of tourism experience quality and expectancy disconfirmation, this paper employs mediation and moderation analyses to examine the impact of tourists’ expectations, experiences and satisfaction on their intention to revisit. Data were collected via a questionnaire survey from 699 tourists. The findings indicate that tourists’ travel experiences influence their intention to revisit both directly and indirectly with satisfaction serving as a mediator. Tourists’ expectations moderate the relationship between travel experience and satisfaction. This research underscores the dominant role of tourism experience in shaping tourists’ behavioral intentions while highlighting the varying effects of expectations across different pathways. The study enhances the understanding of how key psychological factors jointly influence revisit intentions and offers practical implications for improving destination marketing and management.