Perception of risk and user cost in property markets: Evidence from Surfside partial building collapse

Abstract This study investigates how unexpected structural failures, such as the Champlain Towers South collapse, can profoundly alter real estate market dynamics. Based on data from the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) for Miami‐Dade from 2020 through 2022, the findings show that older condos experienced significant post‐collapse list price discounts, longer time on the market, and reduced sale prices compared to newer units. These effects were not observed in the single‐family home market, indicating that the collapse amplified perceptions of risk and increased financial burdens, specifically for aging condos. The negative impacts were especially pronounced for taller buildings and those near the coast, where maintenance and insurance costs are higher. Overall, the study underscores the critical influence of catastrophic events on property markets and highlights the need for policymakers and industry stakeholders to adapt to evolving risks and regulatory challenges to maintain market stability.