Employment status and entry into parenthood: Weaker labor market status an unlikely driver of cohort fertility decline in a Nordic welfare state

Previous studies in the Nordic context have found a positive association between stronger labor market attachment and entry into parenthood (i.e. first birth), with the association being stronger for men than women and influenced by educational attainment and life-course stage. Using total population register data and event history methods, this study asks whether and how the relationship between employment status and entry into parenthood has changed for women and men born in Finland in the 1970s, 1980s, and early 1990s. We first examine how the employment situations in which women and men make decisions about entering parenthood have changed across cohorts. Our results indicate that episodes of unemployment have not increased across cohorts of women and men who are (still) childless. At the same time, young adults are increasingly combining studies and paid employment. Stable employment promotes entry into parenthood for both men and women, although the association remains stronger for men. Sufficient economic resources to start a family may have become even more important in recent cohorts, as the negative association between longer-term unemployment and transition to parenthood appears to have intensified. We also observe a cohort trend toward delayed or foregone entry into parenthood occurring regardless of labor market status. To conclude, although weak labor market status is associated with lower first-birth rates, it is unlikely to be a major driver of the cohort fertility decline, as we observe no deterioration in young adults’ labor market status and only modest changes in its association with entry into parenthood.