Temperature Is Surpassing Precipitation as the Dominant Driver of Flash Drought Acceleration Under Climate Warming

Abstract Flash droughts (FDs), characterized by rapid soil moisture depletion, are typically driven by multiple factors including precipitation deficits, high temperature, increased radiation, strong winds, and enhanced land‐atmosphere coupling. However, the dominant driver and its temporal evolution remain unclear. Here, we systematically quantified the relative contributions of these drivers and demonstrated that precipitation has historically been the dominant driver, followed by temperature. Under climate warming, however, precipitation's contribution is declining while temperature's role is becoming increasingly prominent. Despite inter‐model uncertainties, the multi‐model ensemble mean indicates that temperature is projected to surpass precipitation as the dominant driver in the majority (>15) of the 27 analyzed regions. An earlier transition (generally before 2060) is projected for regions including western North America, northern Asia, southeastern Asia, and central Africa. Our findings underscore a critical transformation in drought mechanisms and the urgency of implementing climate‐resilient drought adaptation frameworks in a warming climate.