Impacts of land use change and climate-forcing scenarios on carbon storage dynamics in the Farallones de Cali national natural park

Forest ecosystems are critical carbon sinks, yet land-use pressure and climate change increasingly threaten their long-term stability. This study aimed to evaluate how land-use trajectories and climate-forcing pathways jointly shape future carbon storage and sequestration dynamics in the Farallones de Cali National Natural Park (FCNNP), Colombia. Using an integrated PLUS–InVEST modeling framework, we identified road accessibility, population density, agricultural expansion, and mining activities as the main drivers of land-use change between 2000 and 2023, and then simulated two contrasting management pathways, Productive Expansion (PES) and Ecological Protection (EPS), combined with climate scenarios SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585 for 2070 and 2100. Results show that forest cover declined by 3.3% over the past two decades, leading to a loss of 2.1 Mt C. Model validation demonstrated high accuracy (Kappa = 0.96; FoM = 0.91). Future projections reveal that PES would intensify carbon losses (up to −15 t C ha -1 by 2100), while EPS could reverse this trend and yield net gains of up to +4 t C ha -1 . Carbon stocks also declined systematically along the climate gradient from SSP245 to SSP585, emphasizing the combined influence of land-use governance and radiative forcing. These findings demonstrate that integrated conservation and restoration strategies can effectively safeguard the park’s carbon-sink function, but their success will depend on both local land-use regulation and broader mitigation efforts. The study provides a decision-ready framework for park managers and policymakers and offers an innovative multi-scenario assessment applicable to other tropical mountain protected areas. • Carbon storage and sequestration modeled with PLUS–InVEST under PES, EPS. • Forest cover in Farallones de Cali NNP fell 3.3%, losing 2.1 Mt C (2000–2023). • PES projects –15 t C ha -1 loss; EPS projects +4 t C ha -1 gain by 2100. • Access, terrain, population, climate: drive land use change in Farallones NNP.