Policy Pathways for Hydrogen in Saudi Arabia: Resilience‐Oriented Optimization of Transport Decarbonization

ABSTRACT Saudi Arabia's transport sector accounts for nearly one‐quarter of national greenhouse gas emissions, facing water scarcity and export competitiveness concerns. This study introduces the GDV‐H 2 Model, a mixed‐integer linear programming (MILP) and Monte Carlo framework, to assess five hydrogen scenarios: Green Anchor, Blue Bridge, Ammonia Logistics, BEV‐H 2 Split, and Resilience‐Low Water. Central metrics include levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH), carbon intensity, water use, and resilience to supply shocks. Blue Bridge (SMR + CCS) offers the lowest LCOH at USD 1.9/kg H 2 but higher emissions (2.1 kg CO 2 /kg H 2 ). Green Anchor achieves low emissions (0.8 kg CO 2 /kg H 2 ) at USD 2.8/kg. Ammonia Logistics is best for long‐distance export (USD 2.2/kg H 2 ), while Resilience‐Low Water restricts water use to 12–14 L/kg. Monte Carlo analysis reveals ±20% uncertainty in LCOH and emissions, primarily driven by electricity and gas prices. All pathways comply with EU low‐carbon import limits and Saudi Vision 2030. Blue hydrogen serves as a transitional strategy, but lasting decarbonization depends on scaling up green hydrogen. Effective investment requires carbon pricing, intensity standards, and water‐use regulation. Export success rests on ammonia logistics, power grid decarbonization, and certification alignment for resilient, cost‐effective hydrogen policy in arid, export‐focused nations.