The Impact of the Digital Economy on Urban Population Crime Rates: Evidence from China’s Yangtze River Economic Belt

Amid accelerating global digitalization and technological transformation, the digital economy has emerged as a key driver of structural economic change. However, it also raises critical concerns related to the digital divide, information exclusion, and labor market restructuring, which may, in turn, affect social stability—most directly reflected in urban crime rates. This study systematically investigates the impact and mechanisms of the digital economy on urban crime rates in China’s Yangtze River Economic Belt. Through theoretical analysis and empirical testing using a fixed-effects panel regression model, we find that digital economy development exerts a significant long-term suppressive effect on urban crime rates. Mechanism tests confirm that digital infrastructure plays a crucial mediating role in this relationship. Moderation effect analysis reveals that the urban employed population strengthens the crime-suppressing effect, while the urban-rural income gap weakens it. Heterogeneity analysis further shows that the governance effect is more pronounced in cities with high carbon emissions and substantial digital divides. These findings highlight the importance of considering local socioeconomic conditions in digital governance and provide a nuanced understanding of the digital economy’s role in urban public safety.