Estimating the safety impact of mandatory ABS legislation for motorised two-wheelers in India using interrupted time series

Motorised two-wheelers (MTW) are India's most common mode of transport and have one of the highest fatal crash rates recorded among all transport modes in the country. Unlike four-wheelers, there has been a significant gap in developing crash-preventive safety devices for MTW. One of the most promising such devices is the antilock braking system (ABS), which has shown better braking performance and improved vehicle stability during emergency braking. Although extensively studied in laboratory conditions and simulations, the effectiveness of ABS has not been thoroughly studied in real-world scenarios. In April 2019, the government of India mandated that all new MTW vehicles produced in the country be equipped with ABS in an effort to reduce fatal crashes among MTW riders. This study examines the crash rates of MTW in Delhi (India) from 2016 to 2022, using Bayesian structural time series to assess the effectiveness of the ABS legislation in improving the safety of MTW users. The study period also includes the time when there were lockdowns due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which significantly affected traffic volume and the number of crashes. To account for these effects, this study normalised the MTW crash rates by the average number of vehicle kilometres travelled. The findings indicate a reduction of 11 % in MTW fatal crash rates in Delhi attributed to ABS legislation. • Examining the crash rates of MTW in Delhi (India) from 2016 to 2022 Using Bayesian structural time series. • Assessing the effectiveness of the ABS legislation in improving the safety of MTW users. • Considering impact of lockdowns due to the COVID-19 pandemic. • A reduction of 11 % in MTW fatal crash rates in Delhi attributed to ABS legislation.