Asymptotic Formulas for the Haezendonck–Goovaerts Risk Measure of Sums with Consistently Varying Increments

The Haezendonck–Goovaerts (HG) risk measure defined on Orlicz spaces via the so-called normalised Young function is a direct generalisation of the Expected Shortfall risk measure. The HG measure is known to be a coherent one, thus making it more robust than some of the alternatives, such as Value-at-Risk, for aggregating and comparing risks, and at the same time more flexible for capital allocation problems, risk premium estimation, solvency assessment, and stress testing in insurance and finance. As random risk in practical applications is often assessed in a portfolio setting—a collection of insurance policies or financial assets, like stocks or bonds—we examine the situation in which the total portfolio risk is expressed as the sum of individual random risks. For this, we consider the sum Sn(ξ)=ξ1+…+ξn of possibly dependent and non-identically distributed real-valued random variables ξ1,…,ξn with consistently varying distributions. Assuming that the collection {ξ1,…,ξn} follows the dependence structure, similar to the asymptotic independence, we obtain the asymptotic estimations of the HG risk measure for the sum Sn(ξ) when the confidence level tends to 1. The formulas presented in our work show that in the case where a portfolio of random losses contains consistently varying losses and the others are asymptotically negligible, it is sufficient for risk assessment to consider only the tails of those dominant losses.