Natural Hazard Assessment Technology Framework

Against the backdrop of escalating compound and cascading natural disaster risks worldwide and the profound transformation of national governance systems，constructing a new generation collaborative natural disaster assessment framework with dynamic responsiveness and system integration capabilities has become a core scientific and technological mission to balance development and security. Existing systems face structural constraints in multi-hazard coupled modeling，dynamic adaptability，and data-decision collaboration. This study systematically reviews the theoretical foundations，technological pathways，and institutional frameworks of current disaster assessment systems，identifies their major challenges，and proposes an integrated construction route along the three dimensions of theory-technology-national framework. At the theoretical level，the framework emphasizes reconstructing the temporal coupling mechanism of hazard，exposure，and vulnerability; building a comprehensive database of multi-hazard interaction parameters and causal relationships （covering triggering，conditioning，and cascading effects）; and establishing a dynamic model for the evolution of disaster chains. These elements jointly reveal the intrinsic coupling mechanisms of compound hazard processes and lay the foundation for dynamic and quantitative risk cognition. At the technological level，the framework advocates the development of an integrated assessment system covering all hazards，all chains，all dimensions，and all processes. It advances the deep fusion of physical and artificial intelligence models to create high-precision，high-efficiency modeling engines and promotes a paradigm shift in risk representation——from categorical classification to probabilistic quantification. This enables risk assessment to evolve from static and single-hazard evaluations toward dynamic，intelligent，and scenario-driven modeling. At the national framework level，the study highlights the importance of institutional and legal mechanisms for cross-sector collaboration. It proposes establishing a unified national database covering all hazards and disaster chains，standardizing multi-hazard assessment methods and indicators，and building a legal and governance framework that integrates assessment with planning and emergency response. The “assessment-planning-emergency” linkage mechanism ensures that assessment results can effectively inform spatial planning，engineering design，and emergency decision-making. Overall，this theoretical，technological，and institutional framework provides a systemic integration pathway for modern disaster risk governance. By achieving quantifiable risk expression，traceable decision processes，and assessable governance effectiveness，it advances the modernization of national disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities and contributes to the implementation of a comprehensive，resilience-oriented national security strategy.