Crises, Tourism and Chaos Theory: Resilience Strategies in Tourism

This study uses Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to analyze tourism mobility in 11 provinces of southeastern Türkiye between 2017 and 2023. It examines the spatial-temporal impacts of the February 6, 2023 earthquakes and the COVID-19 pandemic. While the pandemic abruptly halted tourism globally, the earthquakes caused severe regional losses, with varied recovery patterns. Through the lens of Chaos Theory’s “butterfly effect,” the study assesses fluctuations in tourism. During the pandemic, tourism declined by 40–50%, with signs of recovery in 2021–2022. The 2023 earthquakes led to significant drops in Hatay, Malatya, and Kahramanmaraş, whereas Adana and Gaziantep recovered faster. Findings highlight the non-linear, spatially diverse nature of tourism’s response to crises and emphasize the need for sustainable, proactive resilience strategies.