First Evidence into the Association of Warming with Stroke and Myocardial Infarction Mortality in the Brazilian Amazon

Rising temperatures intensify thermoregulatory stress, leading to increased cerebrovascular and cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. In this study, we aimed to examine the associations between rising temperatures and cerebrovascular and cardiovascular mortality in the Brazilian Amazon. Deaths from stroke and myocardial infarction were analyzed alongside monthly mean temperatures from 2000–2023. Poisson regression models were used to assess temporal trends and age-specific differences, whereas time series and distributed lag models were used to evaluate the influences of temperature and the cumulative effects of extreme heat. Increases in mean temperature were significantly associated with higher mortality for both outcomes, with older adults showing greater vulnerability, particularly those aged over 50 years. Prolonged exposure to extreme heat increased mortality risk, and the trend became more evident after 2015. These findings are the first to demonstrate that warming is associated with increased cerebrovascular and cardiovascular mortality in Amazonian populations, underscoring the urgent need for mitigation and adaptation strategies such as early warning systems, climate-resilient infrastructure, and improved healthcare access.