The Progress and Prospects of the Basic Theoretical System on Natural Disasters

Natural disasters are characterized by diverse types and severe impacts，along with pronounced spatiotemporal heterogeneity and cascading effects，which give rise to numerous fundamental theoretical challenges in disaster prevention and mitigation. In China，the hazard formation environment is complex and governed by multiple dynamic factors，leading to substantial variation in the spatiotemporal patterns of different disaster types. The current theoretical system for disaster prevention remains insufficient. Based on reviewing the current state of basic research on natural disasters internationally，the theoretical dimensions of disaster incubation，triggering，formation，cascading，and amplification are systematically analyzed，forming the core of the proposed “five-disaster effect” framework. It is proposed that the core objective of basic theoretical research on natural disasters is to reveal the interaction mechanism between disaster-inducing factors and the formation and evolution of disasters. A deeper understanding of the full-cycle dynamics and spatiotemporal patterns of disaster processes can provide robust theoretical support for key technical domains such as hazard identification，monitoring and early warning，risk assessment，engineering mitigation，emergency response，and governance strategies. Above research work can also provide theoretical foundation for innovation of natural disaster prevention and control.