Spatiotemporal Patterns and Driving Forces of Ecological Quality in the Yangtze River Economic Belt Using GWRR

Ecological quality (EQ) in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) has been profoundly reshaped by rapid urbanization and intensive ecological restoration over the past two decades. This study aimed to reveal the long-term spatiotemporal patterns of EQ and their driving forces at the basin scale. We constructed a 1 km, 25-year (2000–2024) Remote Sensing Ecological Index (RSEI) series using MODIS data and applied Sen’s slope, the Mann–Kendall and Hurst tests, and Geographically Weighted Ridge Regression (GWRR) to quantify trends, persistence, and spatially non-stationary driver effects. Results showed a significant overall improvement: by 2024, 69.6% of the YREB is classified as Good or Excellent EQ, with 34.6% of land showing continuous improvement and 6.4% faced persistent degradation risks. Forest and grassland cover exerted stable positive effects, while built-up expansion, population density, and GDP increasingly contribute to EQ decline, and the area dominated by urbanization-related negative coefficients expanded to 84.6% of the middle and lower reaches. The GWRR model achieved high average local R2 (>0.92) and revealed pronounced spatial heterogeneity and multicollinearity-robust driver estimates. This study illustrates the potential of GWRR-based EQ diagnosis to support differentiated ecological governance strategies tailored to the upper, middle, and lower reaches of the YREB.