Representative Meteoclimatic Scenarios for Mediterranean Urban Climate Adaptation

Abstract To develop representative meteoclimatic scenarios for enhanced urban climate adaptation and comfort assessment in the Mediterranean arid region, understanding local climate dynamics is essential for sustainable urban development in Mediterranean vulnerable areas. This study presents an innovative methodology for analysing and representing the meteoclimatic conditions of the Adriatic area. We integrate statistical analysis of historical meteorological data (2011 - 2021) with the novel concept of a “Representative Day.” This day was algorithmically selected by minimising hourly deviations from the period mean, thereby creating a realistic daily profile. Importantly, this approach can be applied to any meteorological variable and extended to perceptual indices such as Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) and Predicted Mean Vote (PMV) enabling detailed thermal comfort evaluations. Furthermore, this methodology facilitates the generation of prognostic scenarios that are representative of future timelines (e.g. 2030 and 2050) by incorporating climate model projections. This analysis confirms significant warming trends. Representative Day provides a robust synthetic scenario that addresses the uncertainties of long-term averages, offers a reliable basis for high-resolution simulations (microclimate and building performance), and facilitates insightful representations of complex conditions. This refined understanding of typical, extreme, and future conditions is crucial for informing effective climate adaptation strategies, enhancing urban resilience, supporting sustainable building design, and guiding urban planning policies towards decarbonising cities in the Mediterranean context.