The Impact of New-Type Urbanization on Carbon Emissions—A Case Study of China Based on the Moderating Role of Forest Quality

As cities continue to expand, the role of forests in mitigating carbon emissions during urban growth has become a critical concern for both researchers and policymakers. This study constructs a comprehensive framework to assess new-type urbanization and forest health, calculates relevant metrics, and applies the Environmental Kuznets Curve model to examine how contemporary urbanization affects carbon emissions while accounting for the moderating role of forest quality. The results indicate that the impact of urbanization on carbon emissions generally follows an inverted U-shaped pattern, although significant regional variations exist. Forest quality has not yet fully realized its potential in reducing carbon footprints, largely due to the need for overall improvement in the forestry sector. In terms of how urbanization affects forest quality, traditional factors such as population migration and industrial restructuring remain the primary drivers. There is a discernible tension between conventional urban expansion and sustainable forestry development. Although modern urbanization and forest quality show promising synergies, both are constrained by their current developmental stages, which limits their effectiveness in substantially curbing carbon emissions.