A Study on the Increase in Measured Methane Concentration Values During the 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake

This study aims to demonstrate the presence of a pronounced coseismic increase in atmospheric methane concentrations during the 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake and to examine whether this increase may have originated from underground natural gas release. By analyzing hourly CH4 data from the Ministry of the Environment’s monitoring network, this study shows that significant methane increases occurred only in areas with seismic intensity of 6– or greater, and that an exceptional anomaly—reaching 29 times the standard deviation of the past year—was recorded at the Nanao station. The validity of this anomaly was confirmed through consultation with local atmospheric officer, and high-time-resolution data (6 min values) were provided, verifying continuous instrument operation. Detailed analysis further shows that two major methane peaks occurred, each rising not immediately after the main shock but synchronously with two large aftershocks approximately 8 and 44 min later. Geological and hydrogeological information indicates the presence of water-soluble gas and unsaturated hydrocarbons beneath the Nanao region, suggesting that seismic shaking may have ruptured clay layers and released accumulated gas. Analyses of public reports and interviews with local officials show that alternative explanations—such as fire smoke, pipeline rupture, instrument malfunction, and gas-cylinder damage—were unlikely. These findings indicate that the observed methane anomaly was most likely caused by earthquake-synchronous underground gas release, suggesting that methane-release risk should be considered in post-earthquake fire-hazard assessments.