Growth and Strife: A Malthusian Perspective on Population and Political Instability in Developing Countries (1960–2022)

This study, based on the Neo-Malthusian framework, examines the association between population growth, resource scarcity, and political instability in 128 developing countries from 1960 to 2022. Results show that rapid population growth is associated with higher levels of political instability. This association appears stronger in low-income countries, which generally exhibit weaker institutions, limited fiscal capacity, and lower carrying capacity that coincide with greater sociopolitical tensions and inequalities. In contrast, high-income developing countries tend to show greater resilience, associated with stronger governance and technological adaptability. The findings highlight the importance of policies that strengthen governance, enhance resource management, and promote sustainable development to address potential instability risks associated with demographic pressures.