Rising Influence of Climate on the Distribution of Black‐Necked Cranes ( <i>Grus nigricollis</i> ) on Tibetan Plateau

The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) wetland ecosystem is undergoing significant changes because of global climate change, which is likely to affect the distribution of waterbirds. To enhance our understanding of these ecosystems and their waterbirds, we used the black-necked crane (<i>Grus nigricollis</i>) as an indicator and examined shifts in the distribution of its suitable habitats. We analyzed field-collected location data and citizen-science data from mid-southern Tibet for 2006 and 2020 and employed the Species Distribution Model (SDM) to assess changes in suitable wintering habitats. Our findings revealed that between 2006 and 2020, suitable habitats for wintering black-necked cranes expanded overall, though some suitable areas were lost. The expansions are mainly distributed around Qinghai Lake and the northern part of the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau. Notably, the variable importance scores from 70.7% land use and land cover in 2006 to 56.9% in 2020, with climate variables such as G-bio8 and G-bio18 gaining prominence. As the black-necked crane's range expands, there may be an increase in overlap in its wintering areas. We recommend not only strengthening the management of existing protected areas but also enhancing research on habitat connectivity from a Central Asian Flyway perspective to better address the impacts of climate change.