Quantifying desertification control efficiency in a hyper-arid region: Spatiotemporal dynamics and policy synergies in Hotan Prefecture of China during 2005–2023

Hotan Prefecture Desertification poses severe threats to socio-ecological resilience in arid regions, yet systematic quantification of desertification control efficiency remains limited. This study addressed this gap by developing an integrated Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) Malmquist index to assess the spatiotemporal dynamics of desertification control efficiency in Hotan Prefecture (a hyper-arid region) of China from 2005 to 2023. To achieve this goal, we analyzed 5 indices spanning the total factor productivity, technical change, efficiency change, pure efficiency change, and scale efficiency change across 7 counties and 1 city in Hotan Prefecture. Results revealed that the growth rate of the total factor productivity is 12.0%, which is driven primarily by technical change and management optimization. However, significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity emerged. Temporally, rapid early gains during 2005–2010, with the total factor productivity value of 1.372, were dominated by technological progress, where technical change reached 1.291, while scale efficiency change helped sustain progress between 2010 and 2015. A recent decline in the total factor productivity to 0.987 during 2015–2023 underscored the risks associated with technological stagnation. Spatially, Qira County achieved the highest growth rate of the total factor productivity at 33.7% through dual advances in technology and management, which stands in sharp contrast to Moyu County’s stagnation, where the total factor productivity reached only 1.029, reflecting the minimal growth rate of 2.9%. Furthermore, scale expansion change proved beneficial in Pishan County but counterproductive in Qira County. Based on these findings, this study proposes targeted policy recommendations to enhance desertification control efficiency in hyper-arid regions like Hotan Prefecture. It emphasizes the importance of continuous technological innovation, particularly water-saving and adaptive techniques to counteract declining productivity. Differentiated spatial strategies are essential, with tailored interventions for high-risk northern areas and scaling successful models from higher-efficiency southern zones. Optimizing project scale based on ecological carrying capacity rather than uncontrolled expansion is urged, along with strengthening cross-regional water resource coordination. Finally, establishing a data-driven monitoring and decision-support system could enable dynamic efficiency evaluations and evidence-based policy planning. This study provides a critical methodological framework for systematically quantifying desertification control efficiency in hyper-arid regions, establishing an empirical foundation for targeted ecological governance.