Global value chains and carbon intensity across economic phases

This study examines the evolving relationship between global value chains and carbon emissions from 2000 to 2014, using a framework that integrates distinct economic phases and significant events. Analyzing data from 52 countries, it identifies varied impacts across three periods: global value chains lowered carbon intensity during the Technology Diffusion phase (2001–2007) due to efficiency gains, raised it during the Crisis Disruption phase (2008–2009) amid economic turmoil, and had a diminished effect during the Policy Realignment phase (2010–2014) under shifting regulations. The research uncovers a U-shaped pattern where initial participation reduces emissions, but excessive engagement increases them, alongside differences between developed and developing nations and regional convergence in Asia. Drawing on data from international trade, climate, and economic sources, it employs advanced statistical methods to ensure accuracy. The findings support tailored policy recommendations, including global carbon pricing adjusted by development level, national green technology requirements, and corporate emission transparency, providing a cohesive strategy to balance trade benefits with climate goals during the study period.