No significant projected climate change effects on the geographic ranges of marine aquaculture species under the sustainable scenario (SSP 1-1.9, 1.5°C warming)

Abstract Aquaculture is increasingly relied upon for global seafood production, projected to be the leading supplier by 2030. Climate change impacts on species health and industry productivity are already evident, creating uncertainties around long-term aquaculture development. While these impacts have been projected for some species, around 62% of aquaculture production remains unassessed. We utilized climate dissimilarity to assess the exposure of 327 species—including those previously unassessed—in their native ranges to changing climates under three climate scenarios: SSP1-1.9, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5. We projected that under a sustainability scenario (SSP1-1.9), 41% of Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ) remained unexposed, including high-value aquaculture regions. However, under increased emissions scenarios (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) all current aquaculture EEZ are projected to be exposed. Semi-enclosed seas, like the Baltic, Black, and Red Seas, experience the largest dissimilarity, alongside equatorial regions. Our findings suggest widespread mitigation efforts are necessary to ensure the long-term resilience of marine aquaculture.