Degrees of Rivalry: U.S. Paradiplomacy and the Weaponization of Education Policy against Japan and China

Abstract Both education and subnational governments have been stereotyped as promoting cooperation and soft power in international relations. In 2023, however, the US state of Florida banned many Chinese researchers from its public universities, demonstrating that subnational governments can use educational policies to take hostile stances on international questions. To understand why subnational governments might use their prerogatives in this fashion, I use a multi-method approach to explore how policies restricting international ties may be demanded in a federal system and their potential effects. Survey data show that Americans who view China as a threat substantially favor limiting educational exchanges with China. San Francisco’s 1905–1907 segregation of Japanese students demonstrates how public demand for municipal actions produced a confrontation that strained US relations with a rising foreign power. Two pre-registered survey experiments demonstrate that neither federal disapproval nor Chinese warnings about diplomatic consequences arising from measures like Florida’s significantly reduce public support.