Adapting to new mobility conditions: Evidence from a Japanese survey on the substitution of in-person mobility with online services for daily necessities

• Examine replacing in-person activities with online services for daily travel. • Show older adults shift from car use to public transport rather than not travel. • Find substitution is higher among tech-savvy, supported, or car-owning individuals. • Offer guidance for policy and industry on mobility impacts of online services. The rapid advancement of information and communication technology (ICT) and the COVID-19 pandemic have significantly reshaped mobility patterns worldwide. As a result, many activities have been replaced from in-person activity to online services. However, relatively little attention has been given to understanding people’s willingness to forgo in-person mobility or replace it with online alternatives, particularly in the case of older adults, who often face challenges in using ICT-based services. This study fills this gap by offering insights into how the potential transportation services market would be if people are offered online services for their daily necessities. A stated choice survey of 645 individuals was conducted in Shiga prefecture, Japan, primarily through an online survey of registered panel members, with additional door-to-door distribution and postal returns in areas with lower panel availability. Then, a mixed logit model was estimated to address the research questions. Results indicate older adults are generally willing and able to substitute car travel with public transport, rather than forgo travel altogether when driving is no longer an option. In addition, individuals are willing to substitute in-person mobility with online alternatives under specific conditions. Substitution is more prevalent among those who are tech-savvy, socially supported, or have access to cars. However, in-person mobilities appear to be less replaceable for older adults, likely due to the sensory nature of shopping and the relational quality of social interaction, which online formats fail to replicate. Overall, this study offers policymakers and business domains insights into better understanding the dominant effect of online services in sustaining daily activities and enabling behavioral adaptation, thus facilitating the development of the digital transformation in various aspects of life services.