Exploring Provincial Cultivated Land Ecological Compensation in Mainland China Through the Lens of Ecosystem Service Flows

ABSTRACT Cultivated land ecological compensation clarifies and monetizes responsibilities for land protection and ecological conservation. However, few studies have developed compensation models focused on cultivated land ecology. This paper developed a compensation model considering both the supply–demand balance of cultivated land and spatial ecosystem service flows. Based on this model, this paper analyzed the cultivated land ecological supply and demand in Chinese provinces, divided provinces into payment and compensated areas, and calculated compensation amounts and distributions. Further, this paper examined the rationality of regional divisions and assessed the impacts of compensation amounts. Both the incentive effects in compensated areas and the payment capacities of payment areas were empirically verified. Provinces were categorized into nine zones according to the spatiotemporal variations in supply–demand characteristics and compensation amounts. Results revealed a decrease in payment areas, from 22 provinces in 2000 to 11 in 2022, alongside an increasing trend in the total compensation amount. The average national compensation amount over 23 years was 1.983 trillion RMB, reaching 2.449 trillion RMB in 2022. Provinces such as Jiangsu and Shandong, located in the eastern payment zone, are significant contributors to payments. Conversely, compensated areas have increased, with southeastern compensated zones such as Guangdong becoming major compensation recipients. These findings facilitate the optimization of zonal management strategies for cultivated land eco‐compensation, ensuring that further policy designs are more evidence‐based.