U.S.–Russia Relations After Trump’s Return to Power: Changes and Prospects

Abstract Following Trump’s return to the White House, the international community has closely observed the trajectory of the full-scale confrontation between the United States and Russia, while also placing hope on his fulfillment of the high-profile campaign pledge to swiftly resolve the Ukraine crisis. Driven by the strategic considerations of concentrating on domestic socio-economic issues and so on, the Trump administration has shifted toward a policy of détente with Russia. Its main features include: abandoning the Biden administration’s objective of inflicting a “strategic defeat” on Russia in Ukraine, striving to resolve the Ukraine crisis through diplomatic mediation, resuming U.S.–Russia diplomatic dialogue, and breaking the ice in bilateral relations by holding a summit meeting with President Putin in Alaska. Under U.S. pressure and mediation, Russia and Ukraine held three rounds of direct negotiations, but these only yielded minor outcomes such as prisoner exchanges and the repatriation of fallen soldiers’ remains, with no progress achieved on a ceasefire agreement. Evidently, the U.S. policy of détente with Russia has brought little substantive result. Given that the Ukraine crisis is likely to persist without resolution, and considering the intractable structural contradictions between the United States and Russia – including disputes over a new security architecture in Europe, geopolitical rivalry in Eurasia, and mutual security dilemmas – Trump’s second-term U.S.–Russia relations will, much like in his first term, start high and end low, reverting to confrontation.