Determinants of migrant inflows to Japan: a time-series analysis of pull factors

This study analyzes the determinants of migrant inflows from China, Indonesia, South Korea, Myanmar, Nepal, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam, the top eight sources of foreign labor in Japan. Secondary data on foreigners in Japan, the human rights index, immigration policy, currency exchange rate, unemployment rate, and dependent population ratio were used in the analysis. Twenty-nine years of time-series data (1994–2022) were collected for all origin countries and Japan, and a random-effects model was employed to investigate the pull factors for migrants from the eight source countries. Regression analysis showed that the human rights index, Japanese currency exchange rate, dependent population ratio, immigration policy, three-year lag of total migrants to Japan, and unemployment rate were significant pull factors. This study concludes that social networks, work opportunities, assurance of human rights, and immigration policies of the destination country are major pull factors for migrants to Japan. The Japanese government should consider developing international labor-friendly immigration policies and creating a foreigner-friendly labor market to ensure a sustainable labor supply from countries with surplus labor.