Rural China's energy futures: Farmers' perceptions, barriers and pathways

Rural communities in China play a crucial role in the global transition towards clean, renewable, and sustainable energy. However, these communities are often overlooked in research, particularly due to the lack of disaggregated data on their energy consumption patterns and preferences based on localised studies. To address this gap, we conduct a field survey of 594 farmers across 99 villages in central China to assess current energy use and future energy preferences. We analyze 41 variables using six Boosted Regression Tree models, a machine learning method, examining effects and interrelations between variables. The results reveal that all households use electricity, nearly all relying on firewood and coal for cooking. Our study indicates that farmers anticipate significant changes in future energy use compared to current practices. A majority of farmers (97 %) expect renewable energy, particularly solar energy and biomass, to become their primary energy source, with coal and biogas receiving less support. Partial dependence analysis shows that price (≥9.9 %), total heat consumption (≥6.0 %) and industrial biomass products (≥5.7 %) significantly influence farmers' expectations. The findings serve as a robust foundation for energy policy recommendations and strategic planning to reach the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals. While not assuming that an energy transition in rural areas is inevitable, the study effectively addresses how current practices and contextual constraints shape farmers’ expectations regarding possible future energy mixes, as a precursor to observed adoption. • 41 variables were modelled by Boosted Regression Trees, a machine-learning method. • Electricity, firewood, and coal are identified as the primary energy sources. • 97 % of farmers express interest in renewable energy, especially solar and biomass. • Price and total heat consumption are the key factors affecting energy expectations. • Farmers anticipate future energy usage will differ significantly from the current.