Costs associated with increasing numbers of Medicare beneficiaries with HIV aged 65 years and older from 2026 to 2035
<b>Question:</b> As the population of people with HIV in the US grows older, what are the expected costs to Medicare and the impact of antiretroviral therapy (ART) costs?<b>Findings:</b> Using microsimulation modeling, we find that the number of Medicare beneficiaries with HIV 65y+ on ART will more than double over the next decade. At current costs of ART and health care-associated inflation, total 10-year costs to Medicare are anticipated to be $196.5 billion; reducing ART costs through the Inflation Reduction Act or generic ART could lower Medicare spending by 40%.<b>Meaning:</b> Efforts to reduce ART costs, while maintaining access to high-quality ART, are critical to reduce total Medicare costs as more people with HIV are anticipated to enroll in Medicare in the next 10 years.
Authors
- Lucas Gerace
- Jessica Phelan (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7008-7744)
- Endel John Orav (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8886-7252)
- Keri N. Althoff (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5068-6595)
- P E Sax
- Anne M. Neilan (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7915-4974)
- Dannie Dai
- John Giardina
- Luke Ang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8771-7327)
- Parastu Kasaie (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3744-9501)
- Ciara Duggan
- Satoshi Koiso (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7542-1801)
- Ankur Pandya
- Florence Ebem
- Grace Luu
- Emily P Hyle
- Elizabeth Humes
- Kenneth A Freedberg
- Jose Francisco Figueroa
Institutions
- Brigham and Women's Hospital (US)
- Harvard University (US)
- Johns Hopkins University (US)
- Massachusetts General Hospital (US)
Publication Details
- Journal
- medRxiv
- Published
- 2025-12-27
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.64898/2025.12.19.25342703
- Primary Topic
- HIV-related health complications and treatments
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00
Funders
- Massachusetts General Hospital
- National Institutes of Health