Shrinking cold wakes accelerate tropical cyclone intensification in recent decades

Tropical cyclones (TCs) have intensified more rapidly in recent decades, with both the frequency and magnitude of rapid intensification (RI) events increasing. While rising sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are widely recognized as the primary driver behind the intensification trend, the contribution of TC-induced cold wakes—localized ocean surface cooling generated by storms—remains poorly quantified. Using 42 years of global data (1982–2023), we identify a robust decline in cold wake size (~7% per decade), driven mainly by enhanced upper ocean stratification. This reduction weakens the oceanic negative feedback on TC intensification and explains about 13% of the observed global trend in intensification rates. The effect extends to RI events and is particularly pronounced in the western Pacific. These findings reveal a previously underappreciated oceanic process that accelerates TC intensification and facilitates more RI events under climate change.