The Role of Intellectual Capital Efficiency and Its Components in Predicting Stock Returns

Objectives: This study aims to examine the effect of intellectual capital efficiency and its components—human capital, structural capital, and employed capital—on the future stock returns of companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. The Value-Added Intellectual Coefficient (VAIC) model is used to measure intellectual capital efficiency. Methodology/Design/Approach: This applied study employs a descriptive-correlational and causal research design. The statistical population consists of all companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange from 2018 to 2023. A sample of 104 companies was selected using the systematic elimination method. Panel data analysis and multiple regression models were used to test the hypotheses, with EViews software employed for data analysis. Findings: The results indicate that overall intellectual capital efficiency, human capital, and structural capital positively and significantly affect future stock returns, while employed capital shows no statistically significant relationship. Furthermore, control variables such as growth opportunities and sales growth also have significant impacts on market returns. Innovation: The findings highlight the critical role of intangible assets—particularly human capital and organizational infrastructure—in value creation for shareholders. This underscores the importance of investing in knowledge-based resources to improve financial performance and stock market returns.