The future of Danish offshore wind: Integration and export strategies for energy hubs in the North Sea

Denmark’s abundant wind resources and expertise in offshore wind position it to support Europe’s decarbonization and energy security goals, especially as Europe seeks to diversify energy sources and invest in hydrogen and hydrogen-derived fuels. To achieve these objectives, Denmark and other Northern European countries aim to establish large-scale offshore energy hubs. This study examines two key aspects: (1) optimal infrastructure for connecting energy hubs to the mainland, and (2) the most advantageous export strategy, focusing on hydrogen or hydrogen-derived Sustainable Aviation Fuel (e-SAF) for the German market. The techno-economic analysis evaluates High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) cables and hydrogen pipelines, assessing the Levelized Cost of Hydrogen (LCOH) for offshore and onshore electrolysis. Sensitivity analyses explore the economic benefits of utilizing excess heat in district heating. Using EnergyPLAN, a system-level assessment compares a decarbonized Danish energy system in 2045 with scenarios involving hydrogen and e-SAF exports. Results show that onshore electrolysis with HVDC is preferable for distances under 350 km, leveraging excess heat utilization for district heating and lower infrastructure costs. Hydrogen pipelines are advantageous only for greater distances. Utilizing excess heat from onshore electrolysis can reduce the LCOH by 10-30%, depending on the selling price and utilization of heat. Direct hydrogen exports become profitable when hydrogen prices exceed 2.7 €/kg (80 €/MWh), while e-SAF export is favourable above 170 €/MWh (1.65 €/litre), aligning with fossil jet fuel competitiveness under carbon taxation. These findings underscore Denmark’s potential to lead in renewable energy exports while bolstering European energy security and decarbonization. • Danish North Sea offshore wind integration pathways are analysed • HVDC preferred over H 2 pipelines for connecting offshore wind at shorter distances • Denmark can export up to 2 Mt of hydrogen to Germany in 2045 • H 2 price of at least 2.7 €/kg needed for Denmark to invest in offshore energy hubs • E- SAF price of around 170 €/MWh needed for Denmark to export e-SAF over H 2