Spatiotemporal analysis of rainfall and temperature variability and trends in Northern Ethiopia

Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of climate variables is essential for areas that depend on rain-fed agriculture, where even minor changes in temperature and rainfall can have significant impact. Therefore, this study examines the variability and trends of rainfall and temperature in the Gazgibla and Ziquala districts of Northern Ethiopia from 1984 to 2023. Key statistical indices were utilized to assess rainfall and temperature variability. Besides, Modified Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator were used for trend analysis. The finding revealed notable fluctuations in rainfall with positive rainfall anomalies dominating, 62.5% and 60% in Ziquala and Gazgibla respectively. Extreme drought conditions occurred in 22.5% of years in Ziquala and 17.5% in Gazgibla. In addition to extremely uneven rainfall distribution and irregular wet to extreme dry years, Ziquala and Gazgibla had 57.5% and 62.5% of years categorized as warm, respectively, indicating long-term warming. Moreover, although rainfall trends were not statistically significant, maximum and minimum temperatures showed significant upward trends, while the increase in mean annual temperature was positive but not statistically significant. This reveals the need for community based adaptation strategies such as promotion of drought-resistant crops, rainwater harvesting, small-scale irrigation system, agroforestry, and early warning system to counter erratic rainfall, warming, and recurrent drought.