Model Predictive Control for Coupled Indoor Air Quality and Energy Performance Based on Incremental Thermal Preference Learning: Experimental Validation in Office Environments

Occupant-Centric Control (OCC) aims to achieve a balance between personalized comfort and energy efficiency; however, current strategies often optimize either thermal comfort or indoor air quality (IAQ) in isolation. This study presents a model predictive control (MPC) framework that integrates incremental learning of individual thermal preferences with IAQ and energy co-optimization in office buildings. An incremental Naive Bayes classifier updates personalized temperature preference bands. Gray-box models, including an RC-network for temperature and a CO2 mass-balance model, provide multi-step forecasts calibrated via genetic algorithm cross-validation. These learned preferences, along with a CO2 limit, are enforced as constraints within the MPC, which minimizes HVAC energy use, supported by a supervisory layer for preventing inefficient operation and allowing manual override. Python–EnergyPlus co-simulations for an open office and a meeting room demonstrate that the framework maintains CO2 concentrations below 1000 ppm and keeps 95% of temperatures within comfort ranges. Compared with baseline control, HVAC energy use decreased by 66% in winter and 56% in summer for the open office and by 44% in winter and 57% in summer for the meeting room. The proposed framework provides a reproducible approach for HVAC control that simultaneously enhances comfort, indoor environmental quality, and energy performance.