Climate Refugia of Endangered Mammals in South Korea Under SSP Climate Scenarios: An Ensemble Species Distribution Modeling Approach

Climate change is expected to alter the distribution of many threatened mammals, yet national-scale identification of climate refugia and conservation priorities remains limited for South Korea. This study aimed to map current hotspots and future refugia for 10 endangered mammal species and evaluate conservation implications under SSP climate scenarios. We compiled occurrence records from nationwide field surveys and protected-area monitoring and fitted ten species distribution models (GLM, GAM, GBM, CTA, ANN, SRE, FDA, MARS, RF, and MaxEnt) using biomod2 with climatic, topographic, and anthropogenic predictors at 1 km resolution. A weighted ensemble model achieved strong predictive performance (mean AUC = 0.840). Current richness hotspots were concentrated along the Baekdudaegan mountain range, and several national parks emerged as core multi-species areas. Variable-importance analysis indicated that topographic constraints (elevation and slope) dominated for most species, consistent with mountain-dependent habitat use. Future projections showed relatively stable richness patterns under SSP2–4.5 but pronounced contractions under SSP5–8.5 by the 2070s, with persistent high-suitability areas converging in the northern Baekdudaegan. The resulting suitability and richness layers provide spatial decision-support for protected-area strengthening, connectivity-oriented management, and targeted monitoring to support national climate-adaptation planning.