The Effects of Seasonal Variations on the Dynamics of Lymphatic Filariasis

ABSTRACT Lymphatic filariasis, a neglected tropical disease that poses significant public health and socioeconomic challenges in low‐income countries. This study developed a mathematical model that incorporates periodic transmission rates in both humans and mosquitoes to account for the seasonal variation's impact on the dynamics of lymphatic filariasis. Both basic and time‐averaged basic reproduction numbers were derived using the next‐generation matrix approach. The model equilibrium solutions were found to be such that both the lymphatic filariasis‐free and lymphatic filariasis‐endemic states are globally asymptotically stable. Sobol's sensitivity analysis was employed to determine the influential parameters that affect model outputs. The analysis revealed that the rates of human and mosquito infection increase the average new infections of lymphatic filariasis. The results indicate a significantly higher exposure of the human population, leading to more infections during the wet season than the distinct dry season. The findings emphasize on consideration of seasonal variations and optimal timing of intervention strategies in combating lymphatic filariasis.