Oil Spill Trajectories and Beaching Risk in Brazil’s New Offshore Frontier

The present study has applied a probabilistic oil spill modeling framework to assess the potential risks associated with offshore oil spills in the Foz do Amazonas sedimentary basin, a region of exceptional ecological importance and increasing geopolitical and socio-environmental relevance. By integrating a large ensemble of simulations with validated hydrodynamic, atmospheric and wave-driven forcings, the analysis of said simulations has provided a robust and seasonally resolved assessment of oil drift and beaching patterns along the Guianas and the Brazilian Equatorial Margin. The model has presented a total of 47,500 simulations performed on 95 drilling sites located across the basin, using the Lagrangian Spill, Transport and Fate Model (STFM) and incorporating a six-year oceanographic and meteorological variability. The simulations have included ocean current fields provided by HYCOM, wind forcing provided by GFS and Stokes drift provided by ERA5. Model performance has been evaluated by comparisons with satellite-tracked surface drifters using normalized cumulative Lagrangian separation metrics and skill scores. Mean skill scores have reached 0.98 after 5 days and 0.95 after 10 days, remaining above 0.85 up to 20 days, indicating high reliability for short to intermediate forecasting horizons and suitability for probabilistic applications. Probabilistic simulations have revealed a pronounced seasonal effect, governed by the annual migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). During the JFMA period, shoreline impact probabilities have exceeded 40–50% along extensive portions of the French Guiana and Amapá state (Brazil) coastlines, with oil reaching the coast typically within 10–20 days. In contrast, during the JASO period, beaching probabilities have decreased to below 15%, accompanied by a substantial reduction in impact along the coastline and higher variability in arrival times. Although coastal exposure has been markedly reduced during JASO, a residual probability of approximately 2% of oil intrusion into the Amazonas river mouth has persisted.