Uncovering the Drivers and Pathways of Carbon Emissions in Smart City: An Integrated DEMATEL–ISM–System Dynamics Approach

Under the dual pressures of global climate change and China’s “carbon peak and carbon neutrality” targets, traditional urban development models are insufficient to support sustainable transitions. Smart cities (SCs) have emerged as key platforms for achieving low-carbon urban transformation, yet the systemic causal mechanisms and dynamic transmission pathways of carbon emissions within these cities remain underexplored. This study develops an integrated DEMATEL–ISM–SD modeling framework to systematically identify key drivers, reveal causal structures, and simulate the dynamic evolution of carbon emissions in SCs. Eighteen influencing factors were identified through a comprehensive literature review. DEMATEL analysis evaluated the causal strength and centrality of factors, ISM constructed a five-level hierarchical structure, and a system dynamics model was established for scenario simulation, using Shenzhen as a case study. The results show that green technological innovation capacity exhibits the highest centrality, while energy structure demonstrates the strongest causal influence. SC policy intensity is positioned at the deepest level of the hierarchical structure, serving as a foundational driver that exerts influence on all other factors. Scenario simulations indicate that enhancing green innovation, optimizing industrial and energy structures, and developing smart transportation systems can significantly reduce carbon emissions over time. The research findings reveal the key drivers and transmission pathways of carbon emissions in SCs, providing a reference basis for policy formulation on urban low-carbon transformation and sustainable development.