The Role of New Quality Productivity in Enhancing Agricultural Product Supply Chain Resilience: A Predictive and Configurational Analysis

Currently, factors such as geopolitical conflicts, frequent extreme weather events, and power struggles among major countries are threatening the stability of the global supply chain. Building a more resilient supply chain has received international consensus. Today, new quality productivity (NQP), spawned by disruptive innovation, is an important way for China to enhance its agricultural product supply chain resilience (SCR). However, studies often overlook the “time lag” problem of the panel data adopted, and their empowering paths require further investigation. Therefore, this study firstly constructs NQP and agricultural product SCR indicators. Based on the panel data produced by 31 Chinese provinces from 2011 to 2022, we solved the “time lag” problem by integrating a Backpropagation Neural Network (BPNN) with an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to predict the NQP level. Subsequently, the empowering paths through NQP-enhancing agricultural product SCR were explored via entropy weight TOPSIS and Fuzzy-Set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) method. Foundations: China’s agricultural product SCR exhibits a spatial differentiation characteristic of “prominent in the central region and weak in the western region”. A single factor is not a necessary condition for high resilience, and its improvement depends on the synergy of multiple factors. Three differentiated driving paths have been identified: “autonomous endogenous driving type”, “environment-enabled driving type”, and “system architecture driving type”. NQMP has become the bottleneck for improving agricultural product SCR, and the threshold of each factor has increased significantly as the resilience target is raised. High resilience stems from the synergy and functional compensation of core factors, while low resilience is mostly caused by the concurrent absence of key conditions or structural mismatch, showing distinct “multiple concurrencies” and “causal asymmetry” characteristics.