Revealing coastal resilience in China: Spatiotemporal dynamics, regional inequality, and structural drivers

Enhancing the resilience of coastal cities is a global priority, yet the spatiotemporal dynamics, inequalities, and drivers of resilience at the city level remain poorly understood. This study investigates these issues across 54 Chinese coastal cities from 2012 to 2022. Using an integrated framework that includes spatial statistics, inequality decomposition, and interpretable machine learning, we analyze a multi-dimensional resilience index. Results show that while overall resilience has increased, spatial polarization between advanced and peripheral cities has intensified, driven primarily by intra-regional disparities. Crucially, we identify green production as the primary structural driver of resilience, surpassing the importance of traditional economic indicators. We also find strong evidence of positive spatial spillovers, demonstrating that a city's resilience is significantly influenced by its neighbors. These findings challenge conventional economic-centric resilience models and indicate that future policy must prioritize ecological governance and coordinated regional planning to achieve equitable and sustainable coastal development. • China's coastal resilience steadily improved from 2012 to 2022. • However, spatial polarization between coastal cities is growing. • Green production is the primary driver of resilience, not economy. • Resilient cities create positive spatial spillovers for neighbors. • Policy must pivot to ecological governance and regional planning.