Panel Data Analysis of Rural to Urban Migration Mobility in Türkiye from a Sustainable Development Perspective

Rural-to-urban migration is most prevalent in developing countries and has been a key driver of urban growth since the onset of industrialization. Initially beneficial, this migration trend has become unsustainable due to its rapid and uncontrolled rise, posing challenges for both rural and urban development. As a result, attention has shifted toward reducing rural–urban migration and encouraging reverse migration to achieve sustainable development. This study investigates the factors influencing rural-to-urban migration in Türkiye, aiming to contribute to rural development policies in similar economies. Using the Arellano–Froot–Rogers estimator, the study analyzes data from 81 Türkiye provinces over a 12-year period, focusing on variables such as population, human development index, agricultural and industrial income, terrorism, agricultural subsidies, and unemployment. The findings reveal that population, agricultural GDP, terrorism, and human development index significantly impact migration trends. These results suggest that rural outmigration is driven not only by economic factors but also by social and political dynamics. Effective rural development strategies, especially those aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), must therefore adopt integrated and collaborative approaches to reduce migration pressure and potentially reverse the trend in the long term.