How Can New Quality Productive Forces Empower Agricultural Sustainable Development in China

The development of New Quality Productive Forces (abbreviated as NQPFs) is crucial for agricultural modernization and agricultural sustainable growth in China. Leveraging panel data from 31 Chinese provinces (2012–2022), we employ a two-way fixed effects model to examine the influence of NQPFs on agricultural sustainable development and the underlying mechanisms. Robustness tests validate that NQPFs exert a significant positive effect on agricultural sustainable development. Agricultural technological innovation emerges as the primary channel through which NQPFs foster agricultural sustainable development. Further analysis indicates that rural economic growth positively moderates this relationship, amplifying NQPFs’ contribution to agricultural sustainability. In addition, the impact of NQPFs exhibits significant variation across regions and agricultural functional zones. Our findings suggest that to foster agricultural sustainable development, governments should prioritize cultivating NQPFs, tailor policies to regional contexts, and concurrently enhance agricultural technology and stimulate rural economic growth.