External insertion, competitiveness, and the growth of the Brazilian economy (1999–2021): theory and empirical evidences

This paper aims to estimate the income and price elasticities of Brazil's exports and imports with the United States, the Netherlands, and China across 12 sectors, based on the multisectoral Thirlwall's Law. Using an ARDL model and seasonally adjusted quarterly data from 1999 to 2021, the analysis reveals that the income elasticities are more robust, positive, and statistically significant in many cases, consistent with the literature. Brazil shows greater competitiveness in basic food and beverages with the U.S. and in industrial inputs and transport equipment with the Netherlands, while demonstrating low competitiveness in several industrial sectors in relation to China. Additionally, the country faces difficulties in the fuel, processed food, and semi-durable goods sectors in its trade with the U.S. and the Netherlands. The results highlight the importance of sectoral policies focused on the most competitive sectors as a strategy to promote long-term growth compatible with external balance.