Machine Learning Framework for Algorithmic Trading

Present financial markets are characterized by great volatility and nonlinear dynamics since they are driven by both quantitative forces and qualitative mood. Traditional trading practices cannot capture such nuance. This study proposes an automated trading system based on machine learning that uses technical analysis as well as sentiment factors for better decision-making. Historical OHLCV stock price data from 2000 to 2025 was augmented with financial indicators such as SMA, EMA, RSI, and Bollinger Bands, as well as sentiment scores based on real-time news via natural language processing. LightGBM regression for predicting the price range and Histogram-Based Gradient Boosting classification for directional prediction were employed. Signals were generated with volatility-adjusted thresholds and classifier confirmation, and a risk management layer enforced position sizing, stop-loss triggering, and drawdown constraint. Back testing demonstrated improved Sharpe ratio, Sortino ratio, and win rates versus baseline strategies. The findings emphasize that the combination of machine learning and sentiment analysis with risk-conscious design improves predictive accuracy, dependability, and preservation of capital in automated trading systems.

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Publication Details

Published
2025-12-22
DOI
https://doi.org/10.3390/cmsf2025012012
Primary Topic
Stock Market Forecasting Methods
Type
article
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article

Machine Learning Framework for Algorithmic Trading

Krishnamurthy Nayak, Supreetha Balavalikar Shivaram, Sumukha K. Nayak
Stock Market Forecasting Methods
article

Machine Learning Framework for Algorithmic Trading

Krishnamurthy Nayak, Supreetha Balavalikar Shivaram, Sumukha K. Nayak
article en

Abstract

Present financial markets are characterized by great volatility and nonlinear dynamics since they are driven by both quantitative forces and qualitative mood. Traditional trading practices cannot capture such nuance. This study proposes an automated trading system based on machine learning that uses technical analysis as well as sentiment factors for better decision-making. Historical OHLCV stock price data from 2000 to 2025 was augmented with financial indicators such as SMA, EMA, RSI, and Bollinger Bands, as well as sentiment scores based on real-time news via natural language processing. LightGBM regression for predicting the price range and Histogram-Based Gradient Boosting classification for directional prediction were employed. Signals were generated with volatility-adjusted thresholds and classifier confirmation, and a risk management layer enforced position sizing, stop-loss triggering, and drawdown constraint. Back testing demonstrated improved Sharpe ratio, Sortino ratio, and win rates versus baseline strategies. The findings emphasize that the combination of machine learning and sentiment analysis with risk-conscious design improves predictive accuracy, dependability, and preservation of capital in automated trading systems.

Manipal Academy of Higher Education (IN), Birla Institute of Technology and Science, Pilani (IN)
Peace, Justice and strong institutions
Openalex Percentile: Top 28%
Stock Market Forecasting Methods
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