Mechanisms and impacts of digital-agricultural integration on grain production resilience

Under the pressures of climate change and resource limitations, digital-agricultural integration (DAI) has become an important driver for strengthening grain production resilience (GPR). Drawing on provincial panel data from 2011 to 2022, this study applies two-way fixed effects, mediation, threshold, and spatial Durbin models to comprehensively examine how DAI affects GPR and through which mechanisms. The findings indicate that DAI substantially improves GPR, and its empowering effect is particularly pronounced in steep regions and areas with advanced digital economy development. The enhancement of GPR mainly occurs through three channels: improved agricultural risk management, advances in agricultural technological innovation, and expanded agricultural socialized services. Fiscal support for agriculture exhibits a threshold effect, with its strongest impact occurring when support levels fall below 9.62%, while the marginal benefit weakens beyond this threshold. Moreover, DAI generates notable positive spillover effects on GPR, exerting an even stronger influence on neighboring provinces.