The U.S. Tariff War under Trump 2.0 and Its Impacts on Vietnam's Economy

This paper analyzes the economic effects of the U.S. tariff escalation under the Trump 2.0 administration on Vietnam within the framework of neo-protectionism and global value chain reconfiguration. The study finds that Vietnam’s export and FDI gains largely reflect trade diversion and supply-chain substitution following rising U.S.–China trade costs, rather than endogenous upgrading. Empirical evidence identifies four main transmission channels of negative spillovers: anti-circumvention risks, import compression from China, exchange rate pressures, and weakening global demand. Together, these channels create a condition of “double exposure,” as Vietnam depends on the U.S. market for exports while relying heavily on Chinese inputs for production. The paper argues that these externally driven benefits are inherently temporary and structurally fragile, highlighting the need for industrial upgrading, supply-chain resilience, and strategic diversification to sustain growth amid an increasingly fragmented global trade order.