Deep Learning‐Based Prediction of High‐Speed Solar Wind Streams: Spatio‐Temporal Dependencies in Coronal Hole Dynamics

Abstract High‐speed solar wind streams (HSS), originating from coronal holes (CH), are key drivers of space weather disturbances and heliospheric dynamics. However, forecasting HSS remains challenging due to the evolving morphology of CH. In this study, we present a deep learning‐based framework that models the spatiotemporal relationship between CH and HSS.We applied preprocessing techniques that included the Stonyhurst projection, removal of off‐limb structures, transient events, and background noise, thus isolating persistent CH features. We developed two convolutional neural network|convolutional neural networks (CNN) models: one using full‐disk extreme ultraviolet images of the sun at 193 Å, 171 Å, and 304 Å wavelengths; the other using binary CH maps derived from 193 Å wavelength. Both models are trained and evaluated across different solar cycle phases using a meta‐learning strategy to retain optimal checkpoints based on validation loss. We find that, over the entire solar cycle (SC) period, our model outperforms the benchmark models, achieving a best correlation of , a root mean square error of Km/s, and a threat score of 0.71 with the observed solar wind (SW) at a 3‐day lead time. The explainability attribution method utilized confirms the model's ability to focus on CH regions and track their evolution over time. Both models learn physically consistent features, highlighting CH structures near the central meridian as key HSS sources. SpeedNet‐BM further demonstrates stable and coherent activation responses, reinforcing its predictive capability and the importance of domain‐specific preprocessing, phase‐aware training, and interpretable deep learning to improve HSS forecasting.

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Publication Details

Journal
Earth and Space Science
Published
2025-12-26
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1029/2025ea004523
Primary Topic
Solar and Space Plasma Dynamics
Type
article
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article

Deep Learning‐Based Prediction of High‐Speed Solar Wind Streams: Spatio‐Temporal Dependencies in Coronal Hole Dynamics

A. Mahrous, K. Kusano, Amr Auf Hamada, Moataz Abdelwahab et al.
Earth and Space Science
Solar and Space Plasma Dynamics
article

Deep Learning‐Based Prediction of High‐Speed Solar Wind Streams: Spatio‐Temporal Dependencies in Coronal Hole Dynamics

A. Mahrous, K. Kusano, Amr Auf Hamada, Moataz Abdelwahab, J. J. Abraham‐Alowonle
article en

Abstract

Abstract High‐speed solar wind streams (HSS), originating from coronal holes (CH), are key drivers of space weather disturbances and heliospheric dynamics. However, forecasting HSS remains challenging due to the evolving morphology of CH. In this study, we present a deep learning‐based framework that models the spatiotemporal relationship between CH and HSS.We applied preprocessing techniques that included the Stonyhurst projection, removal of off‐limb structures, transient events, and background noise, thus isolating persistent CH features. We developed two convolutional neural network|convolutional neural networks (CNN) models: one using full‐disk extreme ultraviolet images of the sun at 193 Å, 171 Å, and 304 Å wavelengths; the other using binary CH maps derived from 193 Å wavelength. Both models are trained and evaluated across different solar cycle phases using a meta‐learning strategy to retain optimal checkpoints based on validation loss. We find that, over the entire solar cycle (SC) period, our model outperforms the benchmark models, achieving a best correlation of , a root mean square error of Km/s, and a threat score of 0.71 with the observed solar wind (SW) at a 3‐day lead time. The explainability attribution method utilized confirms the model's ability to focus on CH regions and track their evolution over time. Both models learn physically consistent features, highlighting CH structures near the central meridian as key HSS sources. SpeedNet‐BM further demonstrates stable and coherent activation responses, reinforcing its predictive capability and the importance of domain‐specific preprocessing, phase‐aware training, and interpretable deep learning to improve HSS forecasting.

Earth and Space ScienceVol. 13(1)
Egypt-Japan University of Science and Technology (EG), National Solar Observatory (US), Nagoya University (JP)
Affordable and clean energy
Openalex Percentile: Top 30%
Solar and Space Plasma Dynamics
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Deep Learning‐Based Prediction of High‐Speed Solar Wind Streams: Spatio‐Temporal Dependencies in Coronal Hole Dynamics — A. Mahrous, K. Kusano, et al. · Earth and Space Science (2025) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS