From wheels to meals: Do bike lanes drive restaurant growth in Montreal? (2005–2020)

This study explores the economic impact of bike lanes on local commercial growth in Montreal, focusing on their influence on the number of restaurants (cafés, dining and nightlife establishments). While active transportation infrastructure is often promoted for its health and environmental benefits, its potential to drive economic development remains debated. Using an Event Study Analysis (ESA) framework, this research analyzes the relationship between bike lane implementation (2005–2020) and restaurant growth within a 150-meter radius. Results indicate that bike lanes do not consistently lead to increased restaurant numbers citywide. However, significant positive effects were observed in the Ville-Marie borough, where a sustained increase in the number of restaurants was detected for up to 10 years following implementation. This study highlights the importance of aligning active transportation planning with local economic conditions to enhance the effectiveness of such investments. • An event study was applied to assess the causal effect of bike lane implementation on restaurant counts across Montreal. • No citywide increase in restaurant counts within 300m is observed, even after controlling for gentrification. • Ville-Marie borough is a notable exception, as sustained restaurant growth occurred up to 10 years after implementation. • Bike lanes may support commercial vitality in central districts but are insufficient alone to drive neighborhood-wide revitalization.