Decarbonization through wood-based building material substitution in mountain territories

• Novel workflow fuses remote sensing with local forest management. • Integration of construction demand with forest resource projections. • Forest resources in mountain areas exceed local demand. • Considering decarbonization pathways in timber substitution effects is strategic. • Timber substitution will be more favorable if implemented in the short term in case of decarbonization. Forests are vital for mountain regions, offering both ecological and economic benefits. Using timber in construction can reduce greenhouse gas emissions by replacing high-emission materials like concrete and steel, though the long-term impact of this substitution – especially amid broader economic decarbonization – remains uncertain. We analyzed how replacing mineral-framed with locally sourced timber-framed homes in Valle Camonica and Valtellina (Italian Alps) could impact emissions between 2025 and 2050, assuming sustainable forest management and harvest practices. We integrated data from satellite imagery, local forest management plans, and life-cycle assessments relative to (i) the buildings that will be constructed in the study area (ii) the potential of timber produced by forests in the study area. In calculating avoided emissions, we included the expected decarbonization pathways of industrial production up to 2050, revealing that timber substitution is most effective in the short term. In case of decarbonization, the avoided emissions related to mineral-timber substitution will decrease from 121 to 15.6 kg CO 2eq m −2 . In the study area, this will be associated with 25.4∙10 6 kg of CO 2eq avoided, while the sustainable production from forests available for wood supply in the study area would result in 7∙10 8 kg of avoided CO 2eq . This study demonstrates that the mitigation potential of timber declines as mineral material production becomes cleaner, but also that timber-framed houses offer an effective solution to reduce emissions during the construction phase. This study provides the first quantification of these time-sensitive trade-offs for Alpine forests, underscoring their role in supporting low-carbon construction during the transition.